The United States soybean industry, once regarded as a stabilizing factor in China-US trade, has now become a victim of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
In a recent letter to Trump, the American Soybean Association (ASA) urged him to give priority to soybeans and reach a deal with China. “US soybean farmers are standing at a trade and financial precipice,” ASA President Caleb Ragland said, warning that “the further into the autumn we get without reaching an agreement with China on soybeans, the worse the impacts will be on US soybean farmers.”
China is the world’s largest soybean importer and had long been the top buyer of US soybeans. ASA data show that in the seven years before 2018, about 28 percent of US soybean output went to China, accounting for an average of 60 percent of total US soybean exports. Such interdependence brought benefits to both sides. However, Trump launched trade frictions during his first term, imposing steep tariffs on Chinese goods, which dealt a heavy blow to China-US economic and trade relations. After returning to the White House, he once again brandished the tariff weapon, sending soybean trade between the two countries into sharp decline.
Figures from the US Department of Agriculture indicate that in the first half of 2025, China’s soybean imports from the US dropped 39 percent year-on-year. As of late July, US soybean exporters had sold just over 3 million metric tons for the marketing year 2025/26, the lowest level in 20 years.
As this year’s harvest approaches, US soybean farmers are facing mounting difficulties. Trump’s tariff barriers and protectionist measures have left them struggling to access the Chinese market, with financial losses and stockpiles both hitting record highs. Against this backdrop, Trump took to his Truth Social platform, calling on China to quadruple its soybean purchases. The post briefly pushed up soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade by 2.4 percent, but it does little to change the reality of shrinking demand from China.
China’s customs data reflect this shift. In July, the country imported 420,000 tons of soybeans from the US, compared with more than 10 million tons from Brazil. Contracts for about 8 million tons in September and 4 million tons in October have already been secured, all from South America.
While the US side grapples with the fallout, China has diversified import sources, reshaped supply chains and improved domestic production through policy support and technological advancements, greatly reducing dependence on US soybeans. These measures have helped China withstand the risks posed by the trade frictions.
Apart from economic value, soybeans also carry political weight. The main soybean-producing states are crucial in US elections, so falling exports, with the potential loss of billions of dollars in sales to China, could add to farmers’ economic woes and increase political pressure on the administration. As the 2026 midterm elections draw near, Republicans face a tough test in securing support from agricultural states.
The soybean dispute reveals that there are no winners in trade frictions. Despite claims of strengthening bargaining power, Trump’s tariff strategy has reduced US farm incomes and fueled significant stockpiles.
The views are extracted from Jiuwanli (meaning 90,000 Miles) account and do not necessarily reflect those of facts.org.cn.
